What will shopping look like in 10 years’ time? Or even five? Will cash payments be a thing of the past? Will anyone bother going into physical stores anymore?

Or, rather than being the death of bricks-and-mortar shops, will digital technology so transform the in-person shopping experience that we no longer even think in terms of ‘online’ versus ‘offline’? Will people view the wide range of cutting-edge tools available to help them shop, however and whenever they like, as part and parcel of the same package?

Any kind of speculation about the future always, of course, involves a certain degree of speculation and make-believe. We can only guess how current trends will evolve years down the line. New innovations and circumstances we cannot predict are bound to emerge that influence the direction of travel. No work of fiction looking towards the future has ever predicted what the world will be like with complete accuracy.

And yet, as far as shopping and commerce are concerned, the way that trends evolve and consumer behaviour shifts over time affords us a reliable glimpse into the future. The technologies that are most likely to have a major impact on commerce over the next decade are already in existence.

Just as importantly, we are gaining a better and better understanding of what consumers want from the shopping experience all the time. Marry this with the technologies available, and we can imagine what shopping will look like in the near future with a certain degree of confidence.

A digital future for digital natives

So, on that note, we’d like to introduce Archie and Ellie. They are a couple in their mid-30s, and the year is 2030. As members of Gen Z, they are part of the first generation of shoppers to grow up as ‘digital natives’. For them, shopping has always been online and on mobile. They’ve always had the freedom of choice that digital shopping provides. They’ve grown up in an omnichannel world - countless brand and retailer sites, marketplaces, social channels, smart voice assistants, plus traditional shops, of course.

And as they’ve gotten older, the choice and convenience that defines digital shopping has only increased. As has the erosion of the lines between online and offline commerce.

Today, the pair are looking forward to a typical Saturday dabbling in a little retail therapy. It’s morning time, and while Ellie browses on her folding phablet over coffee, Archie makes a few enquiries of the AI voice assistant built into their smart kitchen as he makes breakfast.

Both can switch from platform to platform, account to account, without having to provide any kind of log in or verification details. This applies to making purchases, too. So, when Ellie spots a recommendation for a gig on her social feed, all it takes is a single touch of a button and the ticket purchase - payment authentication and all - is confirmed in a moment.

This is all thanks to Decentralised Identification (DID) technology, which means that Ellie and Archie both have their ID instantly recognised and authenticated biometrically by their devices - Ellie via facial recognition on her phablet camera, Archie via voice recognition. DID gives them a single digital ID that provides instant secure access to all the digital services they want to access - no more usernames, no more passwords, no more two-step authentication.

DID works by storing their personal details (including biometric data and financial accounts) in a Blockchain - a distributed, decentralised ledger system that is simultaneously completely transparent and tamper-proof. For digital shoppers like Archie and Ellie, Blockchain offers three major benefits.

For one, it’s self-verifying. A Blockchain is literally a growing chain of digital transactions, with each new ‘block’ verified only if it presents a consistent data link to what has gone before. So, Ellie and Archie’s identities can only be verified using data that is intrinsically linked to them - their biometrics, their devices, the confirmed locations provided by those devices and so on. No one else could possibly imitate them. That’s what allows for a one-stop verification process like DID.

Second, Blockchain is intrinsically secure, with each block in the chain cryptographically locked and time-stamped. That gives Archie and Ellie complete peace of mind that their data cannot be stolen or misused. And finally, Blockchain gives Archie and Ellie complete control over their personal data. It belongs to them and them alone, they only share the information they want to share or that it’s absolutely necessary to share with third-party services.

This is the world of Web 3.0, a world where Big Tech no longer controls access to digital services, where commerce takes place directly between consumers and businesses without the need for intermediaries such as payment gateways.

As Archie makes breakfast, he asks the AI assistant to make a grocery list. In an instant, the watch checks in with the smart home sensors in the refrigerator, freezer and cupboards, and displays a list of things the couple need on the kitchen’s multiscreen - bread, milk, cereal, juice etc. Checking Archie’s diary for the day, the AI suggests Archie pick the items up from the local store to coincide with his morning run, rather than have them delivered.

After Archie confirms, the smart assistant checks with the store’s online inventory that it has everything on the list in stock and then places the order. Archie will simply need to walk into the store, pick up his pre-packed bag and walk out. The store’s systems will identify Archie from the DID signature on his smartwatch as soon as he walks through the door. Payment will be triggered from his account when he walks out again.

Ellie, meanwhile, has had her eye on a new dresser unit for the bedroom. She reviews her recent searches, the machine learning algorithm in the search engine automatically ranking the items she has viewed according to her search criteria - not anything to do with the SEO efforts of the vendors. In Web 3.0, search is neutral, driven by Semantic Networks that collate data based on user intent, not the obscure algorithms of a third party like Google.

Ellie looks at the top three choices. She touches a photo of each in turn, and holds her phablet up, camera pointing at the spot she pictures the dresser fitting into. So convincing is the photorealistic Augmented Reality (AR) projection of the dresser onto the bedroom as Ellie looks at her screen that, if Ellie was shown any of these as a photograph, she would assume the dresser was already a part of the furniture.

Having tried all three, Ellie knows which one she likes the look of best. It is a second-hand piece of furniture from a private seller, made of teak. Ellie wants to be sure the timber came from a sustainable source, so she checks the Non-Fungible Token (NFT). An NFT acts like a Blockchain-based certificate of authenticity. As such, this one contains the entire history of the dresser - when the current owner bought it, who they bought it from, who manufactured it, where the materials were sourced from etc.

Able to access the certified, time-stamped purchase record for the timber within the NFT, Ellie sees the sustainability marque. Satisfied, she happily completes the purchase.

After breakfast, Archie heads out for his run. But soon after he leaves, Ellie suddenly remembers the dress she saw in the window of the boutique round the corner from the convenience store. She quickly grabs her VR headset, puts it on and enters the Metaverse - a virtual rendering of the real world where people can interact in a shared digital space as they would physically.

Ellie takes herself to the virtual version of the boutique - the dress is still there. She calls Archie and asks if he would pick it up for her. By the time he gets there, Ellie has already been in touch with the store and requested a virtual fitting. By sharing her dimensions with the store (all contained within her DID), the sales assistant simply sends a 3D digital image of the dress to Ellie, and she can see how it fits her avatar in the metaverse, with everything scaled with pinpoint accuracy to how it would look in real life

Driven by consumer demand

What makes us believe that a scene like this could become anything like a reality come the end of the current decade? Well, as we started out by saying, we can never know for sure. But two things make us quietly confident that this is a likely scenario for how the future of shopping could look.

For one, all of the technologies featured in this little narrative already exist - and what is more, businesses are already well on with embracing them. They recognise their enormous potential, not just years down the line, but in the very near future.

We recently carried out a survey of 600 senior decision-makers and leaders in digital commerce, marketing and IT, equally split across the UK, US and China. We quizzed them about their views (and their adoption plans) on six emerging and disruptive technologies starting to have an impact on the commerce space - AI, Blockchain, decentralised identity, metaverse, Web 3.0 and XR (extended reality).

The enthusiasm we found for these technologies was higher than we anticipated. 92% of companies we spoke to told us they have already adopted at least one of these six technologies. More than 85% of respondents said they believe all six technologies will be essential to their business in the next two years - never mind the end of the decade.

Our second reason for highlighting these technologies is something commerce leaders also recognise - they represent a future that consumers want. 88% of participants told us they believe their customers are looking for seamless, omnichannel experiences - the ability to have purchases authenticated immediately and automatically on any channel, having the lines between physical and digital shopping blurred by the shared experiences created by AI, AR, the metaverse and more.

90% agreed that disruptive digital technologies can add value to in-person shopping experiences for their customers, challenging the assumption that digital is slowly killing bricks-and-mortar retail. And 87% told us that consumers now expect continual cycles of innovation in digital shopping experiences, laying down the challenge to businesses to move with the times.

One thing we have learnt for certain over the years is that the most successful operators in commerce always have one eye on the future. The intersection of consumer expectations and technology places demands on retailers and brands that change dynamically and rapidly. But it is also here that the greatest commercial opportunities are found.

Download the new report Disruptive Technologies to get the wide-angle view on what these technologies mean for businesses today and in the near future, and just how seriously business leaders are taking them.

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