Sun, sea, and sand may no longer be the go-to summer holiday formula, as climate-induced heat waves make traditionally popular beach and city destinations less desirable during the Northern Hemisphere’s hottest months.

Underlining this rise in extreme temperatures in ever-popular tourist spots, in June Italy reported it had recorded temperatures of over 50 degrees Celsius (122 fahrenheit) in key tourist sites in Rome, including St. Peter’s Basilica, Termini Station, and the Colosseum. This summer has also seen wildfires break out again in Greece following those of 2023, most recently on the islands of Chios, Crete, and Kos.

WEB tina axelsson summer house 8065
Summer holiday in a red cottage on an island in the archipelago of Nacka, Stockholm. Image courtesy of Tina Axelsson/imagebank.sweden.se

To escape these soaring temperatures, travel agents report that tourists are turning to cooler havens to take their summer breaks, with Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, Switzerland and Scotland among those destinations said to be proving popular. Indeed, London-based luxury operator Kensington Tours told the Wall Street Journal that its summer 2024 bookings for Norway were up 37% compared to the previous year, with Sweden up 70% and Finland 126%.

Laura Greenman, managing director of London-based Magnetic North Travel, which specializes in holidays to cooler destination including Nordic countries, Canada, and Scandinavia, told VML Intelligence that enquiries to the company for family travel for this summer have doubled compared to the previous year, while enquiries from couples saw a 30% rise. “Nearly all of these clients state the reason for selecting Scandinavia as [a destination is that it’s] cooler than other European countries in summer,” said Greenman, adding that “we've seen a 50% increase in bookings to sustainable cooler destinations like Copenhagen and Gothenburg.” Gothenburg, Greenman points out, has been ranked as the world’s most sustainable large city destination by the Global Destination Sustainability Index.

And part of the appeal of cooler summer destinations, Greenman says, is that the lower temperatures allow for a more active break. “[Travelers can be] immersed in nature without feeling vulnerable to sunstroke or heat-induced exhaustion,” Greenman notes. “Activities such as hiking, cycling, kayaking, and exploring are more comfortable in cooler climates, prompting families and adventurers to look north for their summer trips.”

Commenting on the trend toward cooler destinations, Visit Sweden told VML Intelligence that while the organization doesn’t currently have data on whether a desire for cooler climates is driving booking levels in the country, according to the organization’s 2023 survey of German travelers, two out of five answered that they “expect to change their travel behavior due to the heat in Southern Europe.” After changing the time of year they would travel, German travelers said they would consider destinations “other than Southern Europe.” The organization also noted that Google searches for "coolcation" have increased by +386% worldwide since October 2023.

Data published in July by the European Travel Commission found that 76% of Europeans surveyed were “adjusting their travel habits according to climate change.” 17% said they would avoid destinations with extreme temperatures, a figure that rises to 32% for over 55-year-olds. This chimes with VML Intelligence’s own data, published in The Future 100: 2024 illustrating how climate events have impacted people’s travel plans. The global survey found 26% of people have reported difficulties traveling as a direct result of climate change, while 19% had to opt for a different vacation location than originally planned because of climate change.

Climate change could even lead to these now-cool destinations altering, too. Forecasting how different climates will evolve in light of rising temperatures, visual essay publication Pudding predicts that destinations such as Copenhagen and Stockholm will see a shift from cold to temperate climates, potentially creating a “Scandinavian Riviera.” “In the near future, people might be bragging about their luxurious beach side resort in Copenhagen,” the publication muses.

The Intelligence take

These signals that tourists are eschewing heat for summer demonstrates the growth of the Temperate Travel trend published in VML Intelligence’s The Future 100: 2023. At the time, we’d noted that “climate change is likely to be a key factor in planning travel,” with “the concept of a summer vacation evolving as tourists reimagine travel over the coming years.” As climate change progresses, it looks like that change is already happening.

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